Charlatan Bait

We’ve been having such a great time here working with your companies and products that we forgot there’s a blog out here that we theoretically should be updating on a somewhat regular basis in order to convince the world how smart we are! If you sense a tad bit of sarcasm in that statement you’re astute. Frankly talk is cheap, and there’s no shortage of talk when blogs are concerned. So your skepticism is not only welcome, it’s heartedly encouraged!

Our previous podcast on data wisdom offhandedly mentioned a concept of “charlatan bait” that has garnered some feedback from our readers. Whether it was my mom, my neighbor, or one of our team I’m not at liberty to say. You know who you are! … What I can say is that it’s mention was pretty spontaneous but it was not the first time that exact phrase has been coined. A web search turns up a random comment from 2011 that goes like this:

“The charlatans seem to be drawn to any thread with the word science, logic or get rich in the title. One should refrain from using these “charlatan bait” unless of course this is what you are fishing for.”

A full decade ago someone else uttered these words in a similar context (stock trading & data analysis) tying it to science, logic and wealth just ringing true the caution that wisdom must not be ignored. In fact, it almost certainly must be prioritized if we hope to excel. I would say “hope to succeed” but we all know in these times success can be highly subsidized. So subsidized that even Punxsutawney Phil, perhaps with the help of a bowtie and top hat, can “succeed” in certain circumstances.

Even in “those” circumstances a little bit of wisdom can go a long way. There are no shortcuts to wisdom. In fact, it can be construed as highly “subjective” when in fact it is perhaps the most objective of virtues. They old saying: “everyone has an opinion” sounds wise all by itself until we realize that it gives no solution. That old saying is not wise at all. It’s actually part of the problem. Sure, everyone “has an opinion” but not everyone’s opinion is wise nor accurate. The “charlatan” seizes on this point. It’s a form of divide and conquer. It’s the moral equivalent of holding ones ears and saying: “neener neener I can’t hear you…”

When we invoke the term “science” we are actually invoking it’s virtual synonym “empirical” and “empirical” means “observable.” There is a gray area, they’re called theories. Theories are supposed to be based on prior observations. However, in modern times with 24 hour news cycles, social media, greed, and political pundits (aka “hacks”) we’ve accepted a very unwise process by which we use theories to build other theories. We do this with no guiding wisdom concerning how far is “too far.” The “too” part of that easily dismissed with: “everyone has an opnion.” So our science is no longer science. It’s opinion. It’s not even observable opinion. Once enough opinions become pure opinion with very little observability we do incredibly stupid things and make terrible arguments for why we do them.

Once the above has happened, the charlatan is now the most powerful person on Earth. The charlatan has precisely one skill. That is the ability to convince people to listen to their opinion instead of someone else’s opinion. When they work in tandem, they cleverly convince people to listen to their coconspirator’s opinion. This process represents a large portion of modern corporate society. The cure to becoming “charlatan bait” is quite simple. Here it comes…

Require & assess the results. No matter how “pretty”, how “charismatic”, how “desirable”, how “nice”, how “articulate”, etc, etc… success is success and failure is failure. It’s critical to objectively lay out what success looks like, even on the smallest undertaking prior to the undertaking because once we get into the thick of it we begin to become emotionally attached in ways that skew our judgment. So if we hire someone for a role, we should define what success in that role looks like, and be honest about whether we’ve succeeded or failed. It’s a real shame we don’t have a scoreboard that simply increases when we succeed and decreases when we fail. Some would say we do! It’s called profits… but that’s not accurate at all. Not in our economy, not in most economies. Charlatans are often some of the most wealthy people you’ll meet. Even if they’re not, they’ll convince you they are. They were only successful at deceiving others. No, I mean a scoreboard that’s based on actual progress, actual success… not spin and doubletalk. Alas, we don’t have that, but if we can’t do any better we do have Punxsutawney Phil to fall back on!