iPhone 5 predictions.

The iPhone is selling below expectation, but that doesn’t mean much. Since when does expectation not follow an indefinite upward trend? Investors know that indefinite upward trends don’t exists. As usuall they limited their initial production batch. So they “sell-out” even when sales are below expectations. That’s just good marketing. 5,000,000 is a lot of phones.

The long-term determination of a post-Jobs Apple may not be their marketing. It definitely won’t be their screen tech. It most-likely won’t even be their processor. What it will probably be is their battery.

Apple has a long history of sealing batteries into their products almost as though they never expect this consumable part to ever wear out. A throwback to 15 years ago that has since been innovated out of everything right down to musical greeting cards. However, Apple is always thinking about the release cycle.

For the iPhone 4 the official cost of replacing your battery is $79 and up to 5 days (Apple Service Page). However, with most cell plans, the phone itself doesn’t even cost that much. So what will people do? They will buy the next one. Ingenious… but…

A big BUT, is that LTE (4G) is a battery burner. If Apple’s iPhone 5 battery is anywhere near as obsolete as some of the other components (like the screen tech, it’s still LCD instead of OLED which also happens to burn much more battery), then they will be disappointing users within a month or two of release when the charge capacity falls. Even under warranty a 5 day turnaround is no fun.

So come Thanksgiving time, keep an ear out for the news.