This took nearly 2 years longer than we expected, however Steve Jobs has finally just resigned. Preliminary reports from back in January made it clear that his health problems were not a thing of the past, however the big test has arrived. Is Apple a cult of personality, and does the share lock down from today signal what will likely amount to a popping bubble?
Our guess is that P/E can be expected to drop to perhaps below $10 in coming weeks as a sign that Steve Jobs is Apple. If it manages to hold then perhaps there is more substance to this company than we’ve given them credit for. Whatever happens our condolences to Mr. Jobs. We hope him the best.
It was once said that Steve Jobs generated “A reality distortion field. In his presence, reality is malleable. He can convince anyone of practically anything. It wears off when he’s not around…” (Bud Tribble working with Jobs in 1981). Unless he manages to pass on his deceptive powers to a disciple Apple should decline and ultimately vanish. However, while we are certainly no experts on the dark arts, it would seem with so many entranced with his spell that the padawan would not have to accomplish quite the feat that Jobs has. So it could happen. The opportunity is coming quickly for another guru to establish dominance. Be on the lookout.
Some major changes this week on the PC front. While DELL announced a more conservative income outlook HP has announced that they will sell their PC unit altogether. While the market has weighed in with its opinion already, it is possible that they are wrong. Specifically about Microsoft & Dell. If HP feels that they will do better focusing on server equipment, they should do it. They do produce some of the most popular server equipment in the world. However, poking Dell or Microsoft for it is illogical. Dell is the second most popular PC builder at 25%, and when HP bows out Dell is well positioned to pick up their quarter and perhaps rise to well over 30-40%. Interestingly enough Apple still sits below a third of either of those two and really does not even qualify being beaten out by even Acer.
Finally there’s Microsoft. By far the most popular OS in the world. We recently ridiculed articles claiming that Windows dropping below 90% market share was newsworthy. It’s a fact, for every 10 computers sold in the world, 9 of them are Windows computers.
So make what you will of current news, however the fact remains, no matter how many “experts” bloviate their predictions about the future the present is the only thing sure. For now Microsoft and Windows 8 are still the biggest player in the business. Anyone who proceeds on the fictional laurels of delusions of visionary brilliance and attempts to operate a business without Windows will sentence their disciples to drastically degraded possibilities. That’s the current reality, and has been so for 20 years, when the only major player to compete with Windows was Novell. There are many who get by with Linux or OSX, but they do so at their own loss. NTFS remains the most flexible and powerful file system for networks to this day.
Windows users, don’t apologize for using the most advanced operating system in the world. That’s the present reality.